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标题: [转载] 糟糕的经济何时触底,我们如何得知? [打印本页]

作者: thesunlover     时间: 2009-3-7 22:19     标题: [转载] 糟糕的经济何时触底,我们如何得知?

糟糕的经济何时触底,我们如何得知?

原作:艾伦·智拜尔,克里斯托弗·雷奥纳德,题莫·妮莎帕拉,美联社商业作家
翻译:浪宽


眼下糟糕的经济何时能走出低谷?经济衰退已15个月,自二战结束以来只有两次经济衰退持续时间更长。目前看来,一切似乎往更糟的方向发展:道琼指数自由降落,工作位置每天都在消失,每8个美国房主就有一个被银行收回住房或者拖欠房款。

但是,经济成周期性运行,最终将会复苏。经济学家们始终关注着一系列统计,以便找到复苏的转折点,其中有一些数据可能被每天的头条新闻所掩盖。美联社审查了美国三大市场——住房,就业和股票——并请专家们分析一下我们目前的处境,以及怎样知道什么时候经济已经触底。

可惜,没有一位专家看到经济有近期内触底回升的迹象。

就业市场

情况到底有多么糟糕?

今年2月份美国失业率达到百分之八点一,为25来的最高。自2007年年底经济衰退开始以来,全国已失去四百四十万个就业机会。

由于住房和建筑行业的放缓,裁员潮已于去年年初开始。去年爆发的金融海啸重创了白领阶层。紧接着,裁员潮遍及各个行业,波及到不同收入层次。

情况会变得多糟呢?

就业市场最黑暗的日子里几乎肯定还没到来。专家们认为,由于消费的低迷和信贷市场的停滞,美国今年可能会总共丢掉二百四十万个就业机会,这将意味着失业率超过百分之九,从而将很容易超过2001年和1990-91年间两次经济衰退时的失业率,虽然不到1982年12月之百分之十点八的水平。这些期望可能是过于乐观了,因为政府对各大银行的资产负债表所做的检查, 即所谓“压力测试”预估大约百分之十点三失业率。

问题是即使经济明年开始好转,就业市场可能仍会疲软多年。根据穆迪旗下的Economy.com预测,在2013年之前,失业率可能不会回落到衰退以前的百分之五。

哪儿是底?

经济学家,穆迪旗下Economy.com的管理总监索菲亚·考如佩克Sophia Koropeckyj正在密切关注的两个标志——一个是缓慢上升的公司雇用临时工的数量,以及那些现有的兼职和全职工们为设法保全职位而加班的工作时数。她说,当商业环境改善,雇主们先雇用临时工,而随后不久就会雇用正式工了。考如佩克估计这种情形可能会发生在2010年中期。

房地产市场

情况有多糟呢?

根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的统计,一月份全美售屋平均价位在173,000美元,比一年半前下降了百分之二十六。

但是,这个数字掩盖了复杂的市场实际情况。房价下降幅度在弗利克斯(Phoenix)和拉斯维加斯周围远超过底特律。前两个地区在房地产市场的繁荣时期到处有新房拔地而起,而在底特律地区,经济问题早就存在了。

即使在同一个大都会区,价格下降的幅度也有所不同,遥远的郊区,由于许多购屋主曾想尽办法获取贷款,他们受冲击较市中心的屋主大的多。

房价崩溃的冲击和影响比历史上任何时期都更加广泛。根据耶鲁大学经济学家希勒的计算,三十年代的大萧条时期房价下跌了百分之三十,但那时人们还不像现在这样集中在城市中心,而且成年人拥有住房的比例也小得多。

近几十年来其它几次房价下跌一直是区域性的,而这次影响到全美各地。根据房地产集团的资料,2008年第四季度,前150名的大都会地区有近百分之九十的地区房价都有不同程度的下降。到去年年底,有五百四十万,约百分之十二左右的房主要么被银行收回产权,要么拖欠还款。

还会糟到什么地步呢?

美国联邦储备委员会估计,到2010年底,房价可能下降百分之十八至二十九。在那些经济较为健康的城市,如塔尔萨、俄克拉何马州和堪萨斯州威奇托,因没有过多的待售房屋跌幅很可能会不太严重。

哈佛大学联合住房研究中心的主任尼古拉·热特色拉斯说,国家的整体经济的健康对健康的房地产市场是非常重要的。“历史告诉我们,就业机会的丢失对房地产市场决不是什么好消息。”

哪里是底?

美国宾夕法尼亚大学房地产教授苏珊·沃彻特一直在注视着积压的待售房屋。按今年1月的销售速度,将需要大约9个半月来清除市场上所有积压,而按照较正常的速度则需6个月左右。

沃彻特教授说,一旦市场上积压的银行收回拍卖的房屋被清理干净后,房产市场也会开始复苏。然而,即使有奥巴马政府投放的750亿美元紧急援助资金,多数经济学家并不认为房价会在2010年第一季度前回升。不要指望房地产市场有戏剧性的突然的反弹,房价上涨的速度极可能是缓慢而温和的。

股票市场

情况有多糟呢?

自从股市在2007年10月达到顶峰后,道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500种股票指数已经失去了一半以上的价值,这是股市1929崩盘后最严重的一次熊市,当时道琼斯指数下跌百分之八十九和标准普尔500种股票指数下跌了百分之八十六。

还会糟到什么地步呢?

分析人士普遍认为,华尔街已经历了最严重的熊市,而许多同样的分析家从来没有想到股市场会跌这么惨。

芝加哥Harris私人银行首席投资官杰克·阿布林说,如果经济继续低迷、失业率进一步攀升,超过目前的去百分之八点一,道琼斯指数可能下跌至6000,这种可能性有百分之三十左右。其他人则更为悲观,Bell Curve Trading的首席市场策略师Bill Strazzullo认为道指可能跌至5000,标准普尔跌至500。

哪里是底?

在过去的60年里,每逢经济减退,在衰退结束前4个月、失业率达到高峰前9个月,标准普尔500指数开始止跌回升。

经济复苏的迹象包括投资者在房产、贷款和就业中寻找周转,消费支出有所增加。市场的玩家将资金从资金的避风港,如黄金,转回股市。

其他投资者可期待那些比较不明显的参数指标,如波罗的海干货指数,它代表铁矿石、粮食和其他材料的整体运输费用。此项费用增加常提示对原材料的需求正在增加,进而暗示经济活动的强劲。

最重要的是,交易商们往往等待突然大量出售的机会,称为投降,它会将恐惧的投资者们挤出市场。当他们慌忙撤出,买盘将会繁忙。投降将引发巨大的价格暴跌和疯狂的交易量。

许多市场专家们认为,股市可能会在今年第二季度或第三季度触底,然后恢复。当复苏来临时,其速度可能会和狂泻时一样惊人:因为在1932年,标准普尔500指数在股市触底后一年上涨百分之四十六。
作者: thesunlover     时间: 2009-3-7 22:20     标题: When economy bottoms out, how will we know?

When economy bottoms out,
how will we know?

By ALAN ZIBEL, CHRISTOPHER LEONARD and TIM PARADIS, AP


When will this wretched economy bottom out? The recession is already in its 15th month, making it longer than all but two downturns since World War II. For now, everything seems to be getting worse: The Dow is in free fall, jobs are vanishing every day, and one in eight American homeowners is in foreclosure or behind on payments.

But the economy always recovers. It runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics, some of them buried deep beneath the headlines, to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three markets — housing, jobs and stocks — and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.

None of them expects it to come anytime soon.

JOBS

HOW BAD IS IT?

The U.S. unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent in February, a 25-year peak. The nation has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in late 2007.

The job cuts began early last year, as the housing and construction industries slowed down. The collapse of the financial industry in the fall battered white-collar workers. Soon, layoffs spread across industries and income levels.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

The darkest days for the job market are almost certainly still ahead. With spending weak and credit markets stalled, experts think the economy will probably shed a total of 2.4 million jobs this year. That would mean an unemployment rate above 9 percent.

That would easily surpass the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions but trail the 10.8 percent rate of December 1982. Those expectations could be optimistic: The government's "stress tests" to check the strength of banks' balance sheets assume a 10.3 percent rate.

The job market will probably be weak for years, even if the economy starts to turn around next year. The unemployment rate may not fall back to its pre-recession level of 5 percent until 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?

Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com, is keeping an eye out for two signs — an inching up in companies hiring temporary workers and a rise in the number of hours worked by those who have managed to keep their part-time and full-time jobs.

When business conditions improve, employers hire temporary workers first, she said, and a pickup in permanent hiring wouldn't be far behind. Koropeckyj estimated that could come in mid-2010.

HOUSING

HOW BAD IS IT?

The median price of a home sold in the United States fell to $170,300 in January, down 26 percent from a year and a half earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But that figure masks the complexity of the market. Price drops have been far steeper around Phoenix and Las Vegas, where new homes sprouted everywhere during the housing boom, than, say, in Detroit, where economic problems predate the recession.

And even within a single metro area, price declines vary sharply. Faraway suburbs, where many buyers stretched to qualify for mortgages, have been hit harder than city centers.

This housing crash has spread pain more widely than any before it. Home prices fell about 30 percent during the Great Depression, according to calculations by Yale University economist Robert Shiller. But the nation was less concentrated in urban centers then. And a much smaller proportion of adults owned homes.

Other housing downturns in recent decades have been regional. This one is truly national. Prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 fell in nearly 90 percent of the top 150 metro areas, according to the Realtors group. And 5.4 million homeowners, about 12 percent, were in foreclosure or behind on mortgage payments at the end of last year.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

The Federal Reserve estimates home prices could fall 18 to 29 percent more by the end of 2010. Declines will probably be less severe in cities with healthier economies that don't have a glut of unsold homes, like Tulsa, Okla., and Wichita, Kan.

The nation's overall economic health is vital to the health of housing. "History tells us that as long as we're losing jobs, that's not good news for the housing market," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?

Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania, is watching the backlog of unsold homes. At January's sales pace, it would take about 9 1/2 months to rid the market of all those properties. A more normal pace would be six months.

Once foreclosures level off and the backlog is cleared, Wachter says, the housing market can begin to recover. But even with the Obama administration directing $75 billion in bailout money to stave off foreclosures, most economists don't expect home prices to bottom out before the first quarter of 2010. And don't expect an explosive rebound: Price increases will probably be modest when they come.

STOCKS

HOW BAD IS IT?

The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have lost more than half their value since the stock market peaked in October 2007. It's the worst bear market since the aftermath of the crash of 1929, when the Dow plunged 89 percent and the S&P 500 index tumbled 86 percent.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

Analysts generally think Wall Street has endured the worst of the bear market. But many of those same analysts never thought the market would fall this far.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the Dow could fall to 6,000 if the economy slows much further and unemployment rises well past the current 8.1 percent. He pegs the likelihood of that at about 30 percent. Others are more pessimistic. Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, contends the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500.

WHEN WILL THE BOTTOM COME?

In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P 500 has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.

Investors will be looking for turnarounds in housing, lending and employment, plus signs that consumer spending has picked up. Then market players would be more likely to move their money from safe havens, such as gold, back into stocks.

Other investors may look to obscure indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping iron ore, grain and other materials. Rising rates can indicate demand for raw materials is increasing, which suggests a strengthening economy.

But most of all, traders are waiting for a sudden spasm of selling known as capitulation. That wrings fearful investors out of the market, and as they rush out, bargain-hunters rush in. Capitulation would trigger a huge plunge in prices and frenzied trading volume.

Many market experts say the bottom of the stock market could come in the second or third quarter of this year. And the recovery, whenever it comes, could be as breathtaking as the fall: Since 1932, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 46 percent in the year after stocks have hit a bottom.


原文参见:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090307/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_where_s_the_bottom
作者: 梦冉     时间: 2009-3-8 20:46
失业的人又无法养房,只能将房子还给银行。银行本来就因为房子次贷危机而亏空,更不能象以前那样贷款给企业等经济实体。企业拿不到贷款,只能紧缩业务和继续裁员。这是一个恶性循环。还没有触底。银行本来就在玩虚拟经济,一块钱当四块钱用。银行亏一块,相当于四块钱的贷款没有了。没有银行的支撑,很多企业也就玩完了。美国政府要救经济,只能大量地印现金,来支持银行。这样一来,要么银行归属国有,要么就便宜了银行。好在美国有大量黄金,美元又是国际硬通货。

最近朋友们聊天,有人问我,次贷危机还未完,第二次金融危机会来吗?我说,有可能。在未来几年里,不是美国,而是全世界,总有些区域在这个美国经济硬着陆的过程中撑不下去,而发生第二次金融危机。有些地方,经济很可能崩溃。当然,这些国家和区域,不一定是美国。
作者: thesunlover     时间: 2009-3-9 20:01

美国经济已陷恶性循环 数据显示真正寒冬还未来临

中央社


(中央社记者刘坤原华盛顿特稿)乐观人士预期,美国经济最好的情况如果发生,今年底就可停止衰退,明年可望开始复苏。不过多项数据显示,最好情况发生的可能性不大。在欧巴马总统任期结束前能复苏就已不错。

因应金融危机,前总统布什在下台前做了两件事情,一是在去年2月促使国会通过1700亿美元第一波刺激经济方案,对1亿3000万美国人退税。依缴税额多寡,个人最多获退税600美元,夫妻获退1200美元,抚养小孩每位再退300美元。

美国人民于4月间收到退税。布什信誓旦旦,强调人民拿退税的钱去消费的效应,半年内就可以显现出来。结果,经济不但未见好转,反而从减缓变成衰退萧条。1700亿美元退税,有如肉包子打狗,有去无回。

布什做的第二件事情是,促使国会10月初通过7000亿美元纾困方案。不过国会只同意布什在下台前动用一半,即3500亿美元。

布什表示,7000亿美元纾困款主要将用在金融机构股权,确保银行正常营运,并继续对业者、屋主及消费者提供贷款。

欧巴马上任前一周,国会授权政府动用另一半纾困金3500亿美元,使欧巴马一上台即可继续对银行纾困。

不过,美国的金融黑洞深不见底,前后几千亿美元丢进去,似乎连回声都没听到。

美国联邦储蓄保险公司(FDIC)公布的最新数据显示,今年前两个月,美国已有16家银行关门。比起去年全年25家,及前年只有3家,这是令人惊心的数字。

另有252家已被列为有倒闭危机的观察名单。比起2007年全年有76家被列入观察名单,可看出美国金融体质快速恶化的程度。

由于欧巴马政府对25万美元以下存款户做出保证,使得FDIC的保险基金日益缩水,当前只剩下190亿美元,为1993年金融危机以来的新低点。

为确保保险基金的正常运作,FDIC宣布从今年2月27日起将银行存款保险费一下子提高6倍多。银行每10亿美元存款的保险费,从去年的50万美元,调高到320万美元。

银行业者对FDIC的决定哗然,认为这等于是华尔街犯错,却记8300家银行的过。FDIC则表示,为了确保银行体系的健康,别无其他选择。

业者估计,银行每增加1美元的存款保险支出,就必须减少12美元的贷款。银行当然不会自行吸收这项额外负担。于是手续费大幅调高,利率降低,信贷进一步紧缩。

因此,本来就已困难重重的银行贷款,雪上加霜,报载连高收入的医生申请房贷也被拒绝,与政府金融纾困本意背道而驰。

企业贷不到款,只好停止投资,并削减支出。商务部统计显示,美国企业界去年最后一季在设备和软件的投资,比去年同期底遽减28.8%。

企业减少支出的另一个办法就是裁员。美国劳工部最新统计数字显示,今年二月份有65万1000人失去工作,失业率冲上8.1%,比元月份遽增0.5个百分点,创下25 年来的新高。

总计过去6个月已有330万人失去工作。至2月底为止,美国全国有1250万人失业。这是1940年开始进行失业调查以来的最高纪录。

联邦准备理事会(Fed)原先预测,美国失业率今年可望维持在9%以下。如今由于信贷紧缩与支出削减恶性循环,悲观人士担心,不但9%可能不保,二位数失业率可能提前到来。

老百姓失业又贷款无门,付不出小孩学费,缴不起房屋贷款。而房贷申请不易,导致房屋交易量遽减,部份地区房价已从最高峰下跌5成。屋主卖了房子还不足以偿还贷款,干脆让银行查封法拍。

于是房屋查封像传染病般快速蔓延。房贷银行业者协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)最新统计数字显示,去年美国全国有12%的屋主,约540万户,至少一个月迟缴房贷遭警告,或房屋已遭查封。

换言之,美国每8位屋主中,就有一位屋主已经被查封或正面临被查封的危机。

而消费者贷款无门,开始精打细算。受影响最显著的是汽车业。公司及一般大众暂时不换新车,初次买车者则改买二手车。汽车业者濒临破产。

最新统计显示,通用汽车(General Motors)2月份销售量比去年同期下降53%;福特(Ford)下降48%;克莱斯勒(Chrysler)下降44%。

通用汽车和克莱斯勒去年向政府借贷的174亿美元纾困贷款,显然未达成起死回生的效果。最近通用汽车又要求政府追加纾困。国会已传出让它宣告破产的声音。

全美第二大电子零售商、全国分店达560家的Circuit City,因经营不善,向法院声请破产,却找不到买主接手,已从8日起关门大吉。3万4000多名员工加入失业行列。

Circuit City的主要销售对象是年轻人。连年轻人都克制不买计算机软件,一叶可知秋。

百业萧条,股市跌跌不休,3月初道琼斯工业指数已跌到12年来的新低。

不过欧巴马向民众信心喊话,说如果有长远眼光,现在是股市进场最佳时机。

欧巴马当然不是无的放矢。他上任之初获得国会支持,通过7870亿振兴经济方案。这次他不是把钱拿去救华尔街,而且直接投入多项全国性建设,包括在全国修建道路桥梁、改建校舍、发展替代能源、医院病历计算机化等。希望扩大内需,以两年内制造350万个就业机会为目标。

不过经过退税、华尔街纾困及汽车纾困等猛药强攻,都未见经济有受到「刺激」,连串数据又令人看了头皮发麻。尽管欧巴马认为春燕已经不远,但绝大多数民众恐怕宁愿相信,真正寒冬还未来临。




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