本届美国总统大选，民主党内候选人提名的剧烈竞争，大浪淘沙，最后集中于希拉里·克林顿与巴拉克·奥巴马二人。政坛老手对崛起新星，女性对非裔，但最为引人注目的反差却被媒体聚焦为所谓的“经验”对“希望”。现年六十岁的克林顿驰骋政坛数十年，以八年第一夫人加两届联邦参议员的资历，在民主党内长期经营，积累了雄厚的政治资本。她对各项竞选议题相当熟悉，演讲中头头是道，如数家珍，为选民留下深刻印象。相比之下，四十六岁的奥巴马则于２００５年初入联邦参议院时，方正式登上全国性政治舞台。但其人在政治上极富洞察与想象力，其演讲不仅表现出对当今美国社会种种问题的深切理解，更充满了马丁·路德·金式的道德感召力。他以“变革”为诉求，在选民中激发起一股强烈的政治参与热与历史使命感。克林顿阵营遂将此简化为“经验”与“希望”的对决。意谓克林顿具有丰富坚实的经验，而奥巴马则唯以空言动众，并无具体政策设计与实际操作能力，因此克林顿才是唯一真正够格的总统人选。媒体识浅，哗噪跟进，一时竟成定论。但明眼人稍加细察，便知大谬不然，而且这一“经验至上”的竞选战略本身既违反经验，又有致命的弱点。

首先，即使在民主党内，克林顿亦远非最有经验的候选人。克里斯·多德（Ｃｈｒｉｓ　Ｄｏｄｄ）自１９８１年以来一直就是参议员，现任参院金融委员会主席。乔·拜登（Ｊｏｅ　Ｂｉｄｅｎ）已连任参议员六次，现为参院外交委员会主席。比尔·理察森（Ｂｉｌｌ　Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓｏｎ）更曾任众议员、美国驻联合国大使、能源部长，现任新墨西哥州州长。用中国的政治术语，其经验覆盖“立法与行政，内政与外交，中央与地方”。若依克林顿的“经验至上论”，她本人早就应被淘汰出局，方为合理。

其次，即使克林顿凭此赢得党内提名，“经验至上论”也将注定她在大选中必败无疑。共和党候选人麦凯恩（Ｊｏｈｎ　ＭｃＣａｉｎ）不仅是家喻户晓的美国英雄，其四年众议员，二十余年参议员的资历与立法工作上的成就，亦使克林顿相形之下黯然失色。以“经验至上”战略赴大选，是俗语所谓“肉包子打狗”者也。

但更成问题的，是克林顿本人对经验的自夸并无坚实的事实根据。她以第一夫人的身份登上全国性政治舞台，以后随总统出访世界多国。与各国政界要人往来应酬之际，多少必有经验积累。然而第一夫人访问八十家孤儿院，与总统谈判八十个国际条约，经验不同，价值大异，不可混为一谈。又曾以第一夫人之尊主持全国医疗制度改革，愿望良好，勇气可嘉，举国上下寄予厚望。然而她排斥不同意见，态度傲慢，积怨甚多又拒绝妥协。最后其医改方案不仅被击败于民主党全面掌控白宫和国会两院之日，更成为随之而来的１９９４年中期选举时“共和党革命”的直接导因之一。民主党两院尽失，立法能力受重创，联邦医疗制度的全面改革从此十几年内无人再敢问津。因人而仍不足以成事，自不能以为经验与能力之佐证。又如２００２年在参院投赞成票授权伊战，虽至今拒不认错，毕竟无助于证明其经验与判断力。

经验之有无与能力之强弱，于本人自许自夸之外，尚须证之以坚实的事实根据，而欲为克林顿寻找此类根据，实非如初想象时之易。即以此次竞选为例，在如此多年的经营与准备之后，她居然直到２００７年秋天才极不情愿地意识到党内候选人提名的资格似乎不真是“非我莫属”，而确有真正的竞争者存在。但她依然“信心满满”，打算在“超级星期二”（２月５日）便将一切搞定。她不仅没有一个在那以后继续选战的具体计划，连经费也已大部化尽，以至不得不自己向自己贷款五百万，还称之曰“很好的投资”（ｇｏｏｄ　ｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ）。尽管她临阵换将，对自己以个人忠诚为第一标准建立起来的竞选班子进行重大人事调整，如今仍已在筹款、民调及赢得代表人票数上全面落后于奥巴马。情急中又出一“游戏中途要求改变规则”的下下策：佛罗里达和密西根两州民主党因违章提前选举，已经党的全国委员会裁定其结果作废，但克奥双方原已同意不计的所得该两州代表人票，克林顿阵营竟然改而要求计入。始于“舍我其谁”的傲慢，为“志在必得”而终于“无所不用其极”，在招致不少选民的反感之外，更在对形势的研判，对人才的识别与任用，对策略的选择以及对经费的预算与使用诸多方面，尽显捉襟见肘，穷于应付之窘态。对照之下，所谓“经验最丰富，能力最强，已通过了考验，从第一天起就可完全胜任”云云，立现空言无据，大言不惭。“盛名之下，其实难副”，此之谓也。

反观奥巴马，其实亦远非如克营与媒体所言，唯以空言动众而已。任何人只要费心一读他于２月３日在威斯康星州通用汽车公司工厂的演讲，就可知他对于目前的房屋次贷危机，全球化引起的美国产业调整，由此带来的制造业萎缩与蓝领失业，改革联邦税收制度，建立全民医疗保险制度等等问题，都有相当切实的了解与具体的政策构想。若更枉驾到他的竞选网站看他的“变革蓝图”，就可发现对于所有在本次竞选中涉及的问题，他都列出了问题之所在，他提出的解决方案，以及他至今在每一方面所做的工作，以供选民评判。其具体与详细的程度，与克林顿不相上下。人们对之尽可见仁见智，自由批评。但一笔抹煞，讥为仅有空言而无实质，是无视事实，极不公平的。

再检验奥巴马的经验与实际操作能力，可知他在进入联邦参议院以前，已有八年伊利诺州议会的经历。其立法经验并不亚于克林顿。他在２ＯＯ２年１０月冒当时美国民意“天下之大不韪”，公开反对伊战，其判断力、自信与勇气，亦远非克林顿可比。自２ＯＯ７年参选总统以来，他以民主党全部候选人中最浅的资历，面对所有长期经营而政治资本雄厚的对手，脱颖而出，后来居上，至今已超越曾被公认为“不可战胜”（ｕｎｂｅａｔａｂｌｅ）的克林顿而全面领先，断非单凭空言可致。就连一直力挺克林顿的乔·克莱恩（Ｊｏｅ　Ｋｌｅｉｎ）也指出，竞选活动本身，便是对于候选人的战略、策略以及管理一个高度复杂的组织的能力的考验。而在硕果仅存的三位有望取胜的候选人——克林顿、奥巴马和麦凯恩——中，“奥巴马已充分证明了自己是最优秀的行政主管”。

平心而论，召集专家，组织班子，写出种种政策文件，本易事也。然后诵而习之，耳熟能详，侃侃而道，以克林顿或奥巴马之素养，既决意问鼎白宫，亦非难为（现居白宫者乃异人异数，不可以常情论之）。奥巴马之足当大任，正在于其超越此等能力之处。除了判断力与勇气以外，其为人所特有的亲和力，演讲所独具的鼓动性，都极为引人注目。而此种亲和力与鼓动性，正是建立在他对论题的深切理解与把握之上。他能抓住问题的本质，言人人所欲言而不必能言，从而在听众中激起强烈的共鸣，迅速建立起与他的认同，并积极参与到他所引领的行动中来。这正是现代民主社会中一个政治领袖最可贵的素质。他以“变革”为号召，呼应美国广大民众多年来对华盛顿种种错误政策、腐败与无能所积压起来的强烈不满。这一口号将各阶层民众种种诉求一以贯之，赋之以清晰的方向性与强烈的历史使命感，因而一呼百应，势不可挡。在近八年布什政府之后，身为民主党挑战者而讥“变革”为空洞无物，乃欲以所谓“经验”取而代之，见小悟浅，安能不“啼笑皆非”。以克林顿今日之经验，比小布什、切尼、拉姆斯费尔德如何，比朱利安尼、麦凯恩如何？

八年布什，本为民主党重返白宫之前驱。最后胜出者无论是女性之克林顿或有色之奥巴马，先例将被开创，历史将启新页，世界亦将为之拭目。但共和党已有见于此，故有麦凯恩成其不可能之奇迹，锁定共和党之提名而严阵以待。若以克林顿对之，“经验”既不足以相抗衡，更无他长可恃，胜算甚微。以奥巴马对之，则各以己长，击人所短，大可放手一搏。以“希望”胜“经验”者，验之于美国不长之故事，实乃史不绝书。检其近者有二：理查德·尼克松以四年众议员，一届参议员，八年副总统（其间遍访各国，并三次代理病中的总统艾森豪威尔实际主政）的经验，而于１９６０年败于热情洋溢之年轻参议员肯尼迪。老布什之经验包括曾任众议员、驻联合国大使、共和党全国委员会主席、驻北京联络处主任、中央情报局局长、八年副总统加四年总统，仍于１９９２年败于４６岁之阿肯色（其时人口约２３０万）州长克林顿。以是观之，则奥巴马与麦凯恩之间，鹿死谁手，正未可知。

美国之总统一职，集国家元首（总统）、政府首脑（总理）与武装力量最高统帅（总司令）三职于一身，其位高权重，于世界所有民主国家之政制中，无出其右者。美国虽取三权分立制，然总统于执掌行政外，其否决权足以阻挠大部分立法之通过，其对大法官之提名权更或可左右其身后司法达数十年之久。故此，全国所有公职中，唯此总统与副总统二职，须经全民直选方得产生，为民主政体中至高无上之授权（ｍａｎｄａｔｅ）程序，一经任命，极难挑战。副总统除于参院投票陷入僵局时可投一票外，主要任务为准备随时接替总统，以国家实不可一日无总统也。任此职者，诚所谓“一身系天下之安危”。和耶战耶，福兮祸兮，常决于其一念之差——大漠之硝烟犹烈，战士之遗体尚温，呜呼，凡我民主国之选民者，敢不慎乎！

（１）见《时代周刊》２００８年２月２５日，２４－２６页。

（２）见《时代周刊》２００８年２月２５日，２３页。

大漠之硝烟犹烈，战士之遗体尚温，呜呼，凡民主国之选民者，敢不慎乎！

以“希望”胜“经验”者，验之于美国不长之故事，实乃史不绝书。

在近八年布什政府之后，身为民主党挑战者而讥“变革”为空洞无物，乃欲以所谓“经验”取而代之，见小悟浅，安能不“啼笑皆非”。

竞选活动本身，便是对于候选人的战略、策略以及管理一个高度复杂的组织的能力的考验。

曾以第一夫人之尊主持全国医疗制度改革，愿望良好，勇气可嘉，举国上下寄予厚望。然而她排斥不同意见，态度傲慢，积怨甚多又拒绝妥协。最后其医改方案不仅被击败于民主党全面掌控白宫和国会两院之日，更成为随之而来的１９９４年中期选举时“共和党革命”的直接导因之一。民主党两院尽失，立法能力受重创，联邦医疗制度的全面改革从此十几年内无人再敢问津。因人而仍不足以成事，自不能以为经验与能力之佐证。

２００２年在参院投赞成票授权伊战，虽至今拒不认错，毕竟无助于证明其武装力量最高统帅（总司令）职之经验与判断力。

始于“舍我其谁”的傲慢，为“志在必得”而终于“无所不用其极”，在招致不少选民的反感之外，更在对形势的研判，对人才的识别与任用，对策略的选择以及对经费的预算与使用诸多方面，尽显捉襟见肘，穷于应付之窘态。对照之下，所谓“经验最丰富，能力最强，已通过了考验，从第一天起就可完全胜任”云云，立现空言无据，大言不惭。“盛名之下，其实难副”，此之谓也。

现年六十岁的克林顿驰骋政坛数十年，以八年第一夫人加两届联邦参议员的资历，在民主党内长期经营，积累了雄厚的政治资本。她对各项竞选议题相当熟悉，演讲中头头是道，如数家珍，为选民留下深刻印象。相比之下，四十六岁的奥巴马则于２００５年初入联邦参议院时，方正式登上全国性政治舞台。

本届美国总统大选，民主党内候选人提名的剧烈竞争，大浪淘沙，最后集中于希拉里·克林顿与巴拉克·奥巴马二人。政坛老手对崛起新星，女性对非裔，但最为引人注目的反差却被媒体聚焦为所谓的“经验”对“希望”。

喜儿的最大问题之一恐怕不是因为她是女性（至少我是十分乐见一位女人入主白宫
的），她的最大问题恐怕是不够亲民，越来越贵族化了。而小奥和她正相反。

她现在表现得够亲民啦，但是看上去十分虚假。就像某些白人表面上似乎看得起华人，可骨子里是轻蔑的。

Clinton May Challenge Texas Vote Rules

Feb 29, 1:59 PM (ET)

By BETH FOUHY

(AP) Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) speaks at a rally Thursday, Feb. 28,...
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LAREDO, Texas (AP) - Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign has raised the possibility of a challenge to Texas' primary and caucus rules just days before the contest, drawing a warning against legal action from the state's Democratic Party.

Top strategists for Democratic rival Barack Obama said Friday they supported the party's action, suggesting the Clinton campaign was trying to block the reporting of caucus results.

Aides to Clinton said earlier this week they were alarmed at the lack of clarity about many of the caucus rules and expressed their concerns on a conference call with Obama's staff and state party officials. Texas has a two-step voting process, with a primary and then caucuses shortly after the polls close.

Specifically, Clinton aides questioned a provision allowing caucus attendees to vote to move the location if they choose to do so, and whether people who had cast so-called "provisional ballots" in the primary would have their votes counted in the caucus.


They also expressed concern about the automated phone system precinct chairs would use to call in the results of each caucus, saying the party hadn't yet trained anyone to use the system properly.

Clinton political director Guy Cecil said he asked party officials to spell out the rules in memo form and to send them to both campaigns.

"We want to see the results in writing, and we reserve the right to challenge something if we don't believe it reflects something that was discussed on the call," he said, insisting that if there were clear problems with how the caucuses were being run, "you are allowed to say something about it."

Cecil on Friday denied that the campaign planned to sue the party, which will manage roughly 8,700 caucuses Tuesday evening.

"There were no veiled threats of lawsuits of any kind," Cecil said of the conference call.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the Clinton campaign was trying to minimize the results of the caucuses. The former first lady and her team have made clear their unhappiness with caucuses, believing that they cater to the hard-core party activists who tend to support Obama. The Illinois senator has won 13 caucuses so far, while Clinton has won just two.

"This takes it to a new level, which is they don't want the people who are participating in those caucuses to have their results reported in a timely fashion. And I assume that's a very self-serving decision," Plouffe said.

Texas party officials said they believed Cecil was threatening legal action and wrote a letter to him and to Obama senior strategist Steve Hildebrand reflecting that concern.

"If it is true that litigation is imminent between one or both of your campaigns and the Texas Democratic Party, such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated democratic process that is involving a record number of participants here in Texas and across the nation," party attorney Chad Dunn wrote. "Litigation regarding the TDP could cripple the momentum of a resurging Texas Democratic Party and ultimately the November 2008 election."

The letter also noted that many of Clinton's senior campaign advisers in Texas had helped to develop the rules governing the state's caucus system. A Texas party official also noted that former President Clinton won the state's caucuses in 1992 and 1996 following the same rules.

Texas has 193 delegates up for grabs Tuesday. Of those delegates, 126 will come from the primary, and 67 from the caucus.

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Associated Press Writer Nedra Pickler in Austin, Texas, contributed to this report.

Can Clinton Overcome Obamania?

Mar 1, 8:04 AM (ET)

By NANCY BENAC

WASHINGTON (AP) - A year ago, Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-Inevitable, was joshing about whether she could appoint her husband secretary of state when she became president, and Barack Obama was urging a throng to be realistic about his own chances. "Let's face it," he said. "The novelty's going to wear off."

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Clinton coronation.

The Democratic presidential race took so many twists that close observers might have needed a chiropractor to follow it. And now Clinton, once the instant favorite in a crowded field of candidates, is struggling to overcome a daunting wave of Obamania.

"There's a problem with inevitability," said Dick Harpootlian, a former South Carolina party chairman who supports Obama. "It rarely proves to be true."

When Clinton joined the race in January 2007 with a cozy Webcast from her living room couch, the notion of a former first lady-turned-senator running to be the first female president was so new, so different, she quickly eclipsed rival candidates such as Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, all seasoned politicians with solid credentials.

"I'm in to win," Clinton proclaimed. And she had the money to back up her bravado.

"I don't think anyone can stop her," John Catsimatidis, a New York businessman and member of Clinton's finance team, trumpeted in February 2007. "She's unstoppable; she's got such a machine."

Clinton, intent on keeping 2000 nominee Al Gore out of the race, seemed to regard all other rivals as "Lilliputians," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart

Her Democratic opponents didn't buy it, though, and neither did the public.

(AP) Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., carries his daughter Sasha after...
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"I lived through the inevitability of Howard Dean," scoffed John Edwards, recalling the early darling of the 2004 presidential race who quickly faded from the Democratic field.

But it was Obama, not Edwards, who emerged as the anti-Clinton.

Bidding to become the nation's first black president, Obama offered a fresh new face, and a message of hope and change that captured the public's imagination.

His first visit to New Hampshire, back in December 2006, before he'd entered the race, sparked such a frenzy of interest that even Obama dismissed it as hype, as his 15 minutes of fame.

"I think to some degree I've become a shorthand or a symbol or a stand-in for now," he said. "It's a spirit that says we are looking for different. We want something new."

Obama joined the race in January 2007, a week before Clinton, and soon proved that his appeal with voters was no passing fancy, that he was more than a cardboard stand-in.

He turned his short resume - just two years of national experience as a senator - into an asset by stressing that it was time for a new generation to step forward.

Obama's surprising ability to raise money - by the boatload - instantly served notice to Clinton that he was not to be discounted.

He matched Clinton almost dollar for dollar in the first three months of 2007, and breezed right past her in the next quarter - raising $33 million to her $27 million. By year's end, both had raised more than $100 million and blown through at least $80 million, muscular figures that no other Democrat could touch.

"That really changed the whole tenor of the race to becoming more of a two-person contest than a coronation," said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance expert at Colby College in Maine.

Clinton did her best to maintain the illusion of inevitability nonetheless.

In July, she dismissed Obama as "irresponsible and frankly naive" on foreign policy.

In September, she ran the gantlet of five Sunday talk shows in one day, working in the phrase "When I'm president" at least seven times.

As recently as November, she calmly told an interviewer that despite Obama's surprisingly strong challenge, "it will be me."

Late into the fall, there were plenty of believers in a Clinton juggernaut.

"If this were a wedding, we'd be at the 'speak now or forever hold your peace' part," Steve McMahon, a former Dean adviser, said of Clinton's strength in October.

But soon there were signs of trouble for her.

An internal campaign memo had surfaced the previous May in which aides urged Clinton to bypass the leadoff caucuses in Iowa because it was her "consistently weakest state." Clinton disavowed the idea and worked hard all fall for an Iowa win, but the memo rang true. She was walloped with a third-place showing in Iowa, surpassed by both Obama and Edwards.

"Years from now," Obama promised his Iowa supporters, "you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment. This was the place where America remembered what it means to hope."

His Iowa victory propelled him like a slingshot into New Hampshire, where the only question seemed to be how big his victory would be.

Clinton didn't buy it, and neither did the public.

With her candidacy on the ropes, tough-as-nails Clinton let loose her emotions. Choking back tears the day before the primary, Clinton spoke from the heart about the meaning of the presidential race. In the process, she softened her remote image and zinged Obama along the way.

"You know, this is very personal for me," she told voters in a coffee shop. "Some of us are right, and some of us are not. Some of us are ready, and some of us are not."

It was a powerful moment, played over and over on TV.

When the New Hampshire results came in, Clinton was the newest comeback kid, Obama the underdog once again.

"I found my own voice," Clinton declared.

Then she overplayed her hand, or rather, her husband.

Heading into a difficult South Carolina contest, Bill Clinton ramped up the anti-Obama rhetoric he'd first unleashed in New Hampshire.

The ex-president's rancorous words - criticizing Obama's positions on the Iraq war as a "fairy tale" and complaining that the Obama campaign had put out a "hit job" on him - were a distasteful counterpoint to Obama's lofty message.

Obama, for his part, took the criticism as a source of pride. "It means I might win this thing," he said.

Win he did in South Carolina. And the money came pouring in.

Obama collected a stunning $36 million in January, compared with $14 million for Clinton.

That gave him the firepower to challenge Clinton everywhere in the mega-round of primaries on Super Tuesday, the day that Clinton had once predicted would be the "finish line."

Instead they traded states, victory for victory, on Feb. 5, and neither came close to touching the tape.

And from there, it was all Obama, all the time, rolling up 11 straight primary and caucus victories in the past three weeks.

Clinton responded by moving the finish line - and raising her own boatload of cash. She collected $35 million in February but was surpassed yet again by Obama's fundraising.

Now Clinton is pinning her hopes on victories Tuesday in Ohio and Texas, where she once led in polls by a wide margin.

But the race has tightened in both states, and Clinton for the first time has lost the lead that she has held in national polls since Day One.

The news just gets worse for her. Two weeks ago, she was up by 16 points in Pennsylvania, which votes April 22. A poll this week showed the race at Clinton 49, Obama 43.

With every victory, more voters have given Obama a closer look.

"The person who wins homecoming queen always looks a lot better the following week walking around campus," said Hart, the pollster.

"My cautionary note," he added, "is that it ain't over. You always think the surprise you've seen is the last surprise."

"If she wins Texas and Ohio, we'll be talking very differently on Wednesday."