mahBY THE NUMBER$

01/19/09 Edition



1.        THE BEST AND THE WORST - In the last half-century (i.e., the 50-years from 1959-2008), the largest percentage gain day for the S&P 500 (up +11.6% on 10/13/08) and the 2nd largest percentage loss day (a drop of 9.0% on 10/15/08) occurred within 2 days of each other.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).   



2.        GOOD DAYS AND BAD DAYS - In spite of losing 37.0% in calendar year 2008, the worst total return performance for the S&P 500 in 77 years, 5 of the top 6 percentage gain days in the last 50 years for the index occurred in the last 3 months of 2008.  The S&P 500 also suffered through 4 of its 6 worst percentage loss days from the last 50 years in 2008 (source: BTN Research).   



3.        FEW STOCKS, LARGE IMPACT - The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 made up 23% of the total stock market capitalization of the index as of 12/31/08.  Thus, 2% of the stocks in the index (i.e., 10 out of 500) have 23% of the stock value of the index.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index (source: S&P).  



4.        BIG FOR A LONG TIME - 5 of the 10 largest capitalized stocks in the S&P 500 as of 12/31/08 were also ranked on the list of the 10 largest capitalized stocks for the index a decade earlier (source: S&P).



5.        MISSING THE BEST DAYS - The average total return for the S&P 500 over the last 25 years (i.e., 1984-2008) is +9.8% per year.  If you missed the 25 best percentage gains days in those 25 years (i.e., 25 days in total, not 25 days each year), your average total return falls to +3.9% per year (source: BTN Research).     



6.        TIME IS ON YOUR SIDE - The split between “up” and “down” days for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years is 53% “up” and 47% “down.”  The split is 58%/42% if the time period analyzed is months over the last 50 years, 63%/37% if the time period is quarters, 72%/28% if the time period is years, 76%/24% if the time period is 5 rolling years, and 88%/12% if the time period is 10 rolling years.  The calculation was based upon the raw index value of the S&P 500 and thus would not include the impact of any reinvested dividends (source: BTN Research).   



7.        THE NEXT YEAR - In the last 75 years (i.e., 1934-2008), the S&P 500 stock index has suffered total return losses of at least 20% in 4 different calendar years, the most recent was last year’s 37.0% decline.  In the year after the 3 previous 20%+ tumbles, the index gained an average of +32% (source: BTN Research).  



8.        THREE OPTIONS - US businesses have an estimated $758 billion of corporate debt maturing this year.  The bonds may be paid off, rolled over to new debt or could default (source: S&P, Wall Street Journal).  



9.        LIVE AND LET DIE - If it takes you 4 minutes to read this issue of BTN, in that length of time 30 births and 20 deaths will have taken place in the USA (source: Census Bureau).



10.     OUT-OF-POCKET - Households pay 31% of total health care expenditures (e.g., prescription drugs, hospital care, physicians’ costs, clinical services, nursing home care).  The remaining 69% is paid by businesses, insurance companies and governments (federal, state and local).  The data is from calendar year 2007 (source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).  



11.     NOT THE FIRST - One of President-elect Obama’s campaign pledges is to implement universal health care, an effort first undertaken by President Theodore Roosevelt more than 100 years ago (source: Newsweek).



12.     GLOOMY FORECAST - The chief economist for a global economic forecasting company with offices in 14 countries worldwide believes the # 1 risk today facing the US is a timid response to the global financial crisis.  Nariman Behravesh predicts the current US recession may potentially be the most severe America will experience since the end of World War II (source: HIS Global Insight).  



13.     TAX WORK - IRS audits of individuals and businesses resulted in the payment of $1.1 billion of additional taxes per week in fiscal year 2008.  33 out of every 34 individual taxpayers making at least $200,000 were not audited by the government (source: Internal Revenue Service).   



14.     BY THE NUMBERS - The top 3 jobs in the USA are # 1, mathematician; # 2, actuary; and # 3, statistician.  The rankings were based upon work environment, income potential, employment outlook, physical demands of the job and work-related stress.  The worst job in the nation: lumberjack (source: CareerCast.com).  



15.     WORKING IN WASHINGTON - Barack Obama becomes the 44th President of the United States tomorrow.  His new administration is responsible for 7,840 appointees to fill government jobs.  85% of those appointees do not require Senate confirmation (source: Rocky Mountain News).