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    [原创] 还是听听学者们的声音吧
    以下英语部分摘录,为这两天海内外不带明显政治倾向的学者们所发表的观点。

    21世纪,全球化经济和信息往来,改变了许多政治与外交结构,尽管仍有意识形态的差别,但西方媒体并不是中国的敌人。现在的世界讲求合作与共存,没有谁想着让邻居家垮台。

    读这些学者的观点,就像上课,听很开明的教授说话,没有烦躁的感觉,也可以把心打开。他们似乎话里没有鄙视也没有攻击,许多尊重和建议,也很开阔,亲切平淡,很像当年的孔子。

    "In contrast to the Arab dictators, the Chinese leadership deals with social tensions pragmatically -- that is, never let things get out of hand.“ ----Wenran Jiang, political scientist, University of Alberta

    “China is unlikely to experience what the Middle East is going through. First, China's high growth rate in the past three decades have delivered benefits to the majority of Chinese people. Although the income disparity is a serious problem, the poor still benefit from the system.”

    “the Chinese leadership is no longer a single dictatorship that hangs on to power forever, but a collective structure with regular serving terms. The largely technocratic leadership core tends to deal with social tensions in a very pragmatic manner -- that is, never to let things get out of hand and become another Tiananmen. At the same time, these leaders also try hard to show they are engaged with the society and care about ordinary people's lives.”

    "Nonetheless, the Chinese leaders are on high alert. They need to continue to deliver economic growth and benefits to the majority of the Chinese people as they have done in the past 30 years. But they also need to make tangible progress toward a more just and egalitarian society, a less corrupt state, and a more open country. ”

    "It is extraordinary to see that the Chinese state, growing rich and powerful, remains easily frightened." ---Fei-Ling Wang, professor, Georgia Institute of Technology

    “Yet so far, the calls for gatherings for the "Jasmine Revolution" have seemed more like pranks, attracting the attention of some spectators and journalists but almost no real protesters.”

    “A repeat of 1989 is not an option. Festering grievances and conflicts must be taken seriously, and the people given recourse. To head off large disturbances, Beijing must figure out a smarter way to govern a nation of 1.3 billion.”


    "Inflation, corruption and inequality are good reasons for the Chinese leaders to be anxious.”--- Oded Shenkar,  the Ford Motor Company Chair in Global Business Management at the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. Author of “The Chinese Century” and "Copycats: How Smart Companies Use Imitation to Gain a Strategic Edge."

    “Economically, China is doing phenomenally well, having just been crowned the world’s second largest economy. Poverty is down and standard of living is way, way up. The country is also increasingly assertive on the world stage, which should feed into nationalist sentiments.”

    “Beijing’s leaders should also be nervous about the “red eye disease,” the Chinese term for envy, given that Bahrain and Oman, two of the wealthiest places on the planet, have been rocked by protests. Faced with one of the highest levels of inequality in the world in a nominally socialist country, the Chinese leaders must know that a rising standard of living alone is no guarantee of satisfaction.”

    “many Chinese, possibly most, are busy climbing the economic ladder and seeking out opportunities, and are not very interested in political aspirations -- yet. After all, Hong Kong prospered as a colony and continues to do so as a special enclave of China without a democratic system.”

    Most Chinese people blame lower officials for social problems, not the central government. ”--- Daniel A. Bell,  professor of the arts and humanities at Jiaotong University in Shanghai and of political theory at Tsinghua University in Beijing.  Author of  “China’s New Confucianism."

    “But the differences are equally obvious. China is not ruled by a family and hence there is no clear source of blame. Most Chinese people (according to survey data) blame lower officials for social problems, not the central government. Also, there are opportunities for social mobility (via education and/or entrepreneurship) that seem to be lacking in the nations of the Middle East. China’s population is older and less restless. And let’s not forgot that 10 percent growth rates can lead to a more intangible sense of pride and confidence.”

    9 评论

    这次事件,在敏感时刻扎刺了当权者的神经,而它能否让当权者换个角度思考问题,国内的诸多NGO或类似团体(环境保护组织、小型半民间宗教组织、小型权益类法律团体、艾滋病防治组织等等),它们的活动会否受到(牵连式的)重压覆盖,都要看未来。起码短期来看很有可能。这也许是本次事件的副作用之一。

    平常的交流和疏导会避免心理缺氧,也有益于稳定并帮助建立平和健康的社会意识。靠压,似乎容易产生更多问题。但现有的社会现状,突然建立个完善公平的法律体系,也不可能。不能空谈,又不能不谈,进也难,退也难,还是要问经济那根顶梁柱。

    中国人口庞大,中产阶级也不是大多数,地域上,除了中原还有边疆,一个因素非常复杂的国家,通过汉语版茉莉花来实现民主突跃,也许并不现实。

    山豆凡