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[转载] 糟糕的经济何时触底,我们如何得知?

糟糕的经济何时触底,我们如何得知?

原作:艾伦·智拜尔,克里斯托弗·雷奥纳德,题莫·妮莎帕拉,美联社商业作家
翻译:浪宽


眼下糟糕的经济何时能走出低谷?经济衰退已15个月,自二战结束以来只有两次经济衰退持续时间更长。目前看来,一切似乎往更糟的方向发展:道琼指数自由降落,工作位置每天都在消失,每8个美国房主就有一个被银行收回住房或者拖欠房款。

但是,经济成周期性运行,最终将会复苏。经济学家们始终关注着一系列统计,以便找到复苏的转折点,其中有一些数据可能被每天的头条新闻所掩盖。美联社审查了美国三大市场——住房,就业和股票——并请专家们分析一下我们目前的处境,以及怎样知道什么时候经济已经触底。

可惜,没有一位专家看到经济有近期内触底回升的迹象。

就业市场

情况到底有多么糟糕?

今年2月份美国失业率达到百分之八点一,为25来的最高。自2007年年底经济衰退开始以来,全国已失去四百四十万个就业机会。

由于住房和建筑行业的放缓,裁员潮已于去年年初开始。去年爆发的金融海啸重创了白领阶层。紧接着,裁员潮遍及各个行业,波及到不同收入层次。

情况会变得多糟呢?

就业市场最黑暗的日子里几乎肯定还没到来。专家们认为,由于消费的低迷和信贷市场的停滞,美国今年可能会总共丢掉二百四十万个就业机会,这将意味着失业率超过百分之九,从而将很容易超过2001年和1990-91年间两次经济衰退时的失业率,虽然不到1982年12月之百分之十点八的水平。这些期望可能是过于乐观了,因为政府对各大银行的资产负债表所做的检查, 即所谓“压力测试”预估大约百分之十点三失业率。

问题是即使经济明年开始好转,就业市场可能仍会疲软多年。根据穆迪旗下的Economy.com预测,在2013年之前,失业率可能不会回落到衰退以前的百分之五。

哪儿是底?

经济学家,穆迪旗下Economy.com的管理总监索菲亚·考如佩克Sophia Koropeckyj正在密切关注的两个标志——一个是缓慢上升的公司雇用临时工的数量,以及那些现有的兼职和全职工们为设法保全职位而加班的工作时数。她说,当商业环境改善,雇主们先雇用临时工,而随后不久就会雇用正式工了。考如佩克估计这种情形可能会发生在2010年中期。

房地产市场

情况有多糟呢?

根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的统计,一月份全美售屋平均价位在173,000美元,比一年半前下降了百分之二十六。

但是,这个数字掩盖了复杂的市场实际情况。房价下降幅度在弗利克斯(Phoenix)和拉斯维加斯周围远超过底特律。前两个地区在房地产市场的繁荣时期到处有新房拔地而起,而在底特律地区,经济问题早就存在了。

即使在同一个大都会区,价格下降的幅度也有所不同,遥远的郊区,由于许多购屋主曾想尽办法获取贷款,他们受冲击较市中心的屋主大的多。

房价崩溃的冲击和影响比历史上任何时期都更加广泛。根据耶鲁大学经济学家希勒的计算,三十年代的大萧条时期房价下跌了百分之三十,但那时人们还不像现在这样集中在城市中心,而且成年人拥有住房的比例也小得多。

近几十年来其它几次房价下跌一直是区域性的,而这次影响到全美各地。根据房地产集团的资料,2008年第四季度,前150名的大都会地区有近百分之九十的地区房价都有不同程度的下降。到去年年底,有五百四十万,约百分之十二左右的房主要么被银行收回产权,要么拖欠还款。

还会糟到什么地步呢?

美国联邦储备委员会估计,到2010年底,房价可能下降百分之十八至二十九。在那些经济较为健康的城市,如塔尔萨、俄克拉何马州和堪萨斯州威奇托,因没有过多的待售房屋跌幅很可能会不太严重。

哈佛大学联合住房研究中心的主任尼古拉·热特色拉斯说,国家的整体经济的健康对健康的房地产市场是非常重要的。“历史告诉我们,就业机会的丢失对房地产市场决不是什么好消息。”

哪里是底?

美国宾夕法尼亚大学房地产教授苏珊·沃彻特一直在注视着积压的待售房屋。按今年1月的销售速度,将需要大约9个半月来清除市场上所有积压,而按照较正常的速度则需6个月左右。

沃彻特教授说,一旦市场上积压的银行收回拍卖的房屋被清理干净后,房产市场也会开始复苏。然而,即使有奥巴马政府投放的750亿美元紧急援助资金,多数经济学家并不认为房价会在2010年第一季度前回升。不要指望房地产市场有戏剧性的突然的反弹,房价上涨的速度极可能是缓慢而温和的。

股票市场

情况有多糟呢?

自从股市在2007年10月达到顶峰后,道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500种股票指数已经失去了一半以上的价值,这是股市1929崩盘后最严重的一次熊市,当时道琼斯指数下跌百分之八十九和标准普尔500种股票指数下跌了百分之八十六。

还会糟到什么地步呢?

分析人士普遍认为,华尔街已经历了最严重的熊市,而许多同样的分析家从来没有想到股市场会跌这么惨。

芝加哥Harris私人银行首席投资官杰克·阿布林说,如果经济继续低迷、失业率进一步攀升,超过目前的去百分之八点一,道琼斯指数可能下跌至6000,这种可能性有百分之三十左右。其他人则更为悲观,Bell Curve Trading的首席市场策略师Bill Strazzullo认为道指可能跌至5000,标准普尔跌至500。

哪里是底?

在过去的60年里,每逢经济减退,在衰退结束前4个月、失业率达到高峰前9个月,标准普尔500指数开始止跌回升。

经济复苏的迹象包括投资者在房产、贷款和就业中寻找周转,消费支出有所增加。市场的玩家将资金从资金的避风港,如黄金,转回股市。

其他投资者可期待那些比较不明显的参数指标,如波罗的海干货指数,它代表铁矿石、粮食和其他材料的整体运输费用。此项费用增加常提示对原材料的需求正在增加,进而暗示经济活动的强劲。

最重要的是,交易商们往往等待突然大量出售的机会,称为投降,它会将恐惧的投资者们挤出市场。当他们慌忙撤出,买盘将会繁忙。投降将引发巨大的价格暴跌和疯狂的交易量。

许多市场专家们认为,股市可能会在今年第二季度或第三季度触底,然后恢复。当复苏来临时,其速度可能会和狂泻时一样惊人:因为在1932年,标准普尔500指数在股市触底后一年上涨百分之四十六。

3 评论

When economy bottoms out, how will we know?

When economy bottoms out,
how will we know?

By ALAN ZIBEL, CHRISTOPHER LEONARD and TIM PARADIS, AP


When will this wretched economy bottom out? The recession is already in its 15th month, making it longer than all but two downturns since World War II. For now, everything seems to be getting worse: The Dow is in free fall, jobs are vanishing every day, and one in eight American homeowners is in foreclosure or behind on payments.

But the economy always recovers. It runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics, some of them buried deep beneath the headlines, to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three markets — housing, jobs and stocks — and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.

None of them expects it to come anytime soon.

JOBS

HOW BAD IS IT?

The U.S. unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent in February, a 25-year peak. The nation has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in late 2007.

The job cuts began early last year, as the housing and construction industries slowed down. The collapse of the financial industry in the fall battered white-collar workers. Soon, layoffs spread across industries and income levels.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

The darkest days for the job market are almost certainly still ahead. With spending weak and credit markets stalled, experts think the economy will probably shed a total of 2.4 million jobs this year. That would mean an unemployment rate above 9 percent.

That would easily surpass the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions but trail the 10.8 percent rate of December 1982. Those expectations could be optimistic: The government's "stress tests" to check the strength of banks' balance sheets assume a 10.3 percent rate.

The job market will probably be weak for years, even if the economy starts to turn around next year. The unemployment rate may not fall back to its pre-recession level of 5 percent until 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?

Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com, is keeping an eye out for two signs — an inching up in companies hiring temporary workers and a rise in the number of hours worked by those who have managed to keep their part-time and full-time jobs.

When business conditions improve, employers hire temporary workers first, she said, and a pickup in permanent hiring wouldn't be far behind. Koropeckyj estimated that could come in mid-2010.

HOUSING

HOW BAD IS IT?

The median price of a home sold in the United States fell to $170,300 in January, down 26 percent from a year and a half earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But that figure masks the complexity of the market. Price drops have been far steeper around Phoenix and Las Vegas, where new homes sprouted everywhere during the housing boom, than, say, in Detroit, where economic problems predate the recession.

And even within a single metro area, price declines vary sharply. Faraway suburbs, where many buyers stretched to qualify for mortgages, have been hit harder than city centers.

This housing crash has spread pain more widely than any before it. Home prices fell about 30 percent during the Great Depression, according to calculations by Yale University economist Robert Shiller. But the nation was less concentrated in urban centers then. And a much smaller proportion of adults owned homes.

Other housing downturns in recent decades have been regional. This one is truly national. Prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 fell in nearly 90 percent of the top 150 metro areas, according to the Realtors group. And 5.4 million homeowners, about 12 percent, were in foreclosure or behind on mortgage payments at the end of last year.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

The Federal Reserve estimates home prices could fall 18 to 29 percent more by the end of 2010. Declines will probably be less severe in cities with healthier economies that don't have a glut of unsold homes, like Tulsa, Okla., and Wichita, Kan.

The nation's overall economic health is vital to the health of housing. "History tells us that as long as we're losing jobs, that's not good news for the housing market," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?

Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania, is watching the backlog of unsold homes. At January's sales pace, it would take about 9 1/2 months to rid the market of all those properties. A more normal pace would be six months.

Once foreclosures level off and the backlog is cleared, Wachter says, the housing market can begin to recover. But even with the Obama administration directing $75 billion in bailout money to stave off foreclosures, most economists don't expect home prices to bottom out before the first quarter of 2010. And don't expect an explosive rebound: Price increases will probably be modest when they come.

STOCKS

HOW BAD IS IT?

The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have lost more than half their value since the stock market peaked in October 2007. It's the worst bear market since the aftermath of the crash of 1929, when the Dow plunged 89 percent and the S&P 500 index tumbled 86 percent.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?

Analysts generally think Wall Street has endured the worst of the bear market. But many of those same analysts never thought the market would fall this far.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the Dow could fall to 6,000 if the economy slows much further and unemployment rises well past the current 8.1 percent. He pegs the likelihood of that at about 30 percent. Others are more pessimistic. Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, contends the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500.

WHEN WILL THE BOTTOM COME?

In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P 500 has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.

Investors will be looking for turnarounds in housing, lending and employment, plus signs that consumer spending has picked up. Then market players would be more likely to move their money from safe havens, such as gold, back into stocks.

Other investors may look to obscure indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping iron ore, grain and other materials. Rising rates can indicate demand for raw materials is increasing, which suggests a strengthening economy.

But most of all, traders are waiting for a sudden spasm of selling known as capitulation. That wrings fearful investors out of the market, and as they rush out, bargain-hunters rush in. Capitulation would trigger a huge plunge in prices and frenzied trading volume.

Many market experts say the bottom of the stock market could come in the second or third quarter of this year. And the recovery, whenever it comes, could be as breathtaking as the fall: Since 1932, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 46 percent in the year after stocks have hit a bottom.


原文参见:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090307/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_where_s_the_bottom

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